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  #31  
Old 10-21-2011, 11:39 AM
Derpa Derpa is offline
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Totally in-tolerable =/

I had 1 epic weapon at low levels -30 and 2 epic gloves.
  #32  
Old 10-21-2011, 12:16 PM
Bullbound Bullbound is offline
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Cregan, what you are forgetting is that the dungeons are not levels 1-10, and then the next one. Also, the chance of something happening, also tells you the chance of it not happening. If something has a chance of .0004% to happen, that means there is a 99.9996% of it not happening. These both state though, that it is possible. My s3 account has completed 89 dungeons, and found 8 epics. What is the chance of that?

Also, drops are NOT based on past history. This is something many refuse to accept, even though it is the truth. Each time, it is randomly generated independently. It is like rolling a die. Just because you don't roll any 1s on a six sided die, after 5 rolls, does not mean your chance of rolling a 1 is higher. It is still a 1 in 6 chance, every time.
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  #33  
Old 10-21-2011, 12:29 PM
Cregan Cregan is offline
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Tolerance is "the minimum chance with which an event should occur to accept is as normal". If an event happens with a chance less than the tolerance, you have grounds to assume something is amiss.

For reference:

Assuming a tolerance of 5% you can complain if:
After 11 normal dungeons you have 0 epics.
After 18 normal dungeons you have 0 or 1 epics.
After 23 normal dungeons you have 0, 1 or 2 epics.
After 29 normal dungeons you have 0, 1, 2 or 3 epics.
After 34 normal dungeons you have 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 epics.

Assuming a tolerance of 1% you can complain if:
After 17 normal dungeons you have 0 epics.
After 24 normal dungeons you have 0 or 1 epics.
After 31 normal dungeons you have 0, 1 or 2 epics.
After 37 normal dungeons you have 0, 1, 2 or 3 epics.
After 43 normal dungeons you have 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 epics.

@Bullbound:

I see I didn't explain myself properly

What I am doing:
Calculating the chance of something hapening, given the chance of 25%. In math 'chance = 25%' is the hypothesis we are testing.
What we then do is calculate 'chance of something happening, given this hypothesis'. If that chance is less than our tolerance (1% or 5% usually) then our hypothesis is assumed to be wrong.

I am not saying things are impossible, just that they are highly unlikely, given the chances mentioned. You have 8 epics from 89 dungeons? Assuming you already left out the boss-dungeons the chance of that (or less) hapening is 0,01%. If it's including 8 boss levels the chance reduces to 0,000000008 %. Either way, the chance is so small that I suspect the chances for finding epics are less than 25%. Normally one already suspects this once the chance drops below 1% or 5%...

The forementioned 0,004% was assuming the 3 epics came from 3 boss-dungeons. If those 3 epics came from 38 normal dungeons, that chance of that (or worse) happening is 0,6% (you are right to notice I omitted this possibility).

And, yes, I do know that every dungeon has equal chances for epics Nowhere in my calculations did I assume otherwise.

Last edited by Cregan; 10-21-2011 at 12:51 PM. Reason: Post inbetween/clarity
  #34  
Old 10-21-2011, 12:37 PM
Derpa Derpa is offline
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39, and ive just found my 4th.
  #35  
Old 10-21-2011, 03:27 PM
Bullbound Bullbound is offline
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Yes, that is with 8 boss monsters beat. Oh, and I made a mistake. It is server 4. I have also had a lot of luck. My s1 character has had an epic once every 2 or 3 dungeons. It spreads out. You also get some with a better distribution. With as many servers as there are, you are going to have folks at every extreme and in-between.
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  #36  
Old 10-21-2011, 04:02 PM
Cregan Cregan is offline
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The expected amount of people needed to have 1 person experience something that has chance 0,000000008 is 125 million. Yes, that's how ridiculously small that chance is.

I don't think there are that many players on Shakes & Fidget, even if there are many servers in the US

Last edited by Cregan; 10-21-2011 at 04:03 PM. Reason: Typo's fixed
  #37  
Old 10-21-2011, 06:06 PM
Charista Charista is offline
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Just to point out... if something has a .004% chance of happening, that means it *will* happen to one person in 25000.

However, the chance of having a 35 dungeon run with no epics is much higher, because you have more than one opportunity. I have done 122 dungeons, which means I could start a 35 dungeon drought on any dungeon from 1-87, giving me 87 chances to start it.

The problem is, I don't remember exactly how to calculate the chances of having a 35 dungeon drought in 122 dungeons. My stats knowledge is just too old. I know it's not as simple as "multiply the chance of it happening by the number of times it can happen"... it's a little more complex than that, IIRC. But it will significantly raise the chances of it happening, causing it to happen to more people as the chances increase. You'll probably see it increase into the 0.1-0.5% range, making it happen to 1 in 200 to 1000 people.

Since we have several thousand people playing on Server 1 right now, odds are there are 3-20 people that have seen it.

Including me. Had a drought like that from Level 40 - 105 or so.

If it can happen, it *will* happen to someone.
  #38  
Old 10-22-2011, 03:50 AM
Cregan Cregan is offline
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If someone just had a run of 35 no-epic dungeons there are no other possibilities to consider than the one in which the 35 dungeons came last. Yes, a random run of 35 might happen at any time, but for this person it just happened in the LAST 35 dungeons. I calculated the chance of THAT happening.

The chance for a random run of 35 happening in the 120 non-boss dungeons is a bit tricky (I assume here that a larger run is allowed in the rest of the dungeons. If you don't allow that the chance will be even smaller).

1) Chance the run is at the start: (0,75)^35 * 0,25 * 1^84
35 non-epics, 1 epic (otherwise the run would be 36 or more) and the
rest doesn't matter per assumption).
2) Chance the run is at the end is the same.
3) Chance the run is somewhere in between: (0,75)^35 * 0,25*0,25*1^83
Two times times 0,25 since the run has to be exactly 35 long. This one we
take 84 times for the different times it can start.

Total chance: 0,02 %
---------------------
Warning: probability theory below

The only thing that is important for those chances are:
p probability for an epic (here 0,25)
n number of normal dungeons
k the number of epics you have.

This is the binomial distribution. Now

P(exactly k epics) = (n nCr k)*(0,25)^k * (0,75)^(n-k)

( n nCr k) = n!/(k!(n-k)!) is the number of sequences of length n there are with exactly k epics.

So for example 4 nCr 2 is the number of sequences of length 4 with exactly 2 epics;
Epic Epic Normal Normal
Epic Normal Epic Normal
Epic Normal Normal Epic
Normal Epic Epic Normal
Normal Epic Normal Epic
Normal Normal Epic Epic

Thus 4 nCr 2 = 6

As you can see, a RUN of 35 no-epic dungeons has LESS chance of happening since it puts a restriction on the number of possibilities. In above example there are only 3 possibilities for a run of 2 no-epic dungeons, instead of the 6 there are in total.

Where possible I calculated
P(k epics or fewer) = SUM (i = 0 to k) P(exactly i epics)

Lastly, your last comment is Murphy's Law. It WILL happen if there are enough people playing. Clearly there are less than 125 million people playing, so that chance of 0,000000008 is so unlucky that one is right to doubt the chance of 25%, according to math. Unfortunately this is all based on what is expected on the long run. These calculations are only an indication of when you are allowed to complain with chances. Coincidence/fate/God may decide otherwise.

Last edited by Cregan; 10-22-2011 at 03:55 AM. Reason: typo's typo's typo's
  #39  
Old 10-22-2011, 07:07 AM
Bullbound Bullbound is offline
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Cregan, you can't look at just the US servers though. We have almost 100 servers internationally. It isn't a matter of how many players there are, but how many accounts. Many players play on more than one server.
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  #40  
Old 10-23-2011, 05:15 AM
Cregan Cregan is offline
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I'm not sure how to interpret your statement bullbound.

If you are you saying there are more than 125 million people playing S&F worldwide, that would mean this game is 10 times more popular than World of Warcraft.

If you are saying there are enough people playing worldwide for small chance things like runs of 35 happening, then you're probabely right. I don't know the numer of players. I do notice that quite a few players complain about having long epic-less runs. For a chance of 1 in 50 000 (0,02%), the expected amount of people would have to be 500 000 to have 10 occurances of that chance.
 

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