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Old 10-25-2011, 02:21 AM
Cregan Cregan is offline
Mushroom Collector
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 37

Originally Posted by Charista View Post
No, you can't mathematically determine that he has a loaded die. All outcomes are possible, however unlikely. There is no point at which you can be certain the die is loaded.
Come on now, did I say otherwise anywhere? My point has been the same the entire time;

These calculation ARE mathematical grounds to doubt the 25%. In court you would be convicted with these chances! Do these calculations make a proof that we are 100% certain? No, they don't. Did you notice I keep using the word 'doubt' instead of 'know for sure'?

Your analogy does not hold to S&F item drops.
Let me spell it out then:
delicious chips = epics
bland cookies = everything else you get from dungeons
rolling a six = getting an epic
dice-game = s&f
friends = other players.
loaded die = broken chance of 25% for one player
rest of the dice = chance of other players (assumed to be 25%)

Both 'games' are binomial. Each repetition is independant, has a fixed chance, is about succes or failure. That makes them IDENTICAL for math. This is not something I think to be true, this IS true.

Furthermore, let me use your logic for a while.
Suppose hundreds of people are getting no epics. Do you still say the chance of 25% must be correct, because the chance of that happening is not exactly 0?

Or do you reason like this:
There are thousands of MMO's out there, all with similar rewards systems as S&F. With so many games out there, it's to be expected that there is at least one game where the reward system returns below-average rewards. That just happens to be S&F. Tough luck for us, but we can't even complain when no epics drop at all!

Assuming there is plenty of intelligent life out in space, there are thousands of planets where chances are involved. There's bound to be one planet where the chances produce below-average results. So even if all our dice stopped throwing sixes, we still have no reason to compain?

Above is all ridiculous. The chances are all independant. That something CAN happen doesn't mean it WILL happen in any finite length of time.

Last edited by Cregan; 10-25-2011 at 02:41 AM.
Old 10-25-2011, 03:57 AM
Bullbound Bullbound is offline
Supreme Adventurer
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,208

Cregan, you are ignoring though the fact that you have some accounts, like my s1 account where I have had 3 items dropped that were not epic. Every other item dropped was an epic. How does that factor into your math? There is such a thing as luck. My s3 account and my s2 account, when I look at my counts, is right on for the 25% chance rate. My s4 account, has had the malady I posted earlier. Should I yell and scream because 1 account has had bad luck and been unfortunate to get so few epics? Should I start claiming the game is rigged and the information is false? Wait, I have more data and more dungeons. I combine it all, and the total chance becomes more apparent. It does indeed match the 50/25/25 that Playa released. As stated above, more data does help.

Here's something that may help you. I just rolled a 6 sided die 10 times, and got the following results; 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 6, 5. I can see that 1, 3, and 6 all appeared twice. Does that give me the ability to say the die favors and will result in 1, 3, or 6 more often than any other number? Mathematically using your calculations of chance, yes it does. However, we all know that a die has an equal chance of rolling any number. I just used a small sample size and the data happens to be skewed in favor of that conclusion. Yes, I actually did roll those numbers. Go ahead and give it a try. Roll a die 3 times, and if the same number appears twice, does that make your dice flawed? No. They are dice.
Old 10-25-2011, 04:57 AM
Derpa Derpa is offline
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 51

Originally Posted by Darstard View Post
41 dungeons? That's 24 dungeons in 16 days? And you weren't saving them before? What level are you now? You were according to your earlier post, L38 on October 8.
83 now.
Old 10-25-2011, 05:55 AM
Charista Charista is offline
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 448

Originally Posted by Cregan View Post
loaded die = broken chance of 25% for one player
Absurd. I won't even entertain the possibility that the Dev team included code to single out players for bad luck.

If you were trying to prove that everyone's chance of an epic was not 25%, fine. But not this. It's inherently paranoid, and in my opinion, you're forcing statistical theory to come up with a predetermined result, not analyzing the data honestly.

The fundamental flaw in your reasoning is that finding someone with aberrant luck is evidence of a flaw in the system. It is quite the opposite. If no one like that existed, it would indicate that the coders had included a "anti-bad-luck" code that kept track of your poor rewards and eventually skewed your chances to get you an epic.

If it *can* happen, then it *will* happen to someone. And that is *not* Murphy's law. It is simply a statistical fact.

I called 22 out of 25 coin flips once. Does that mean I have precognition? I wasn't doing the flipping, and it wasn't my coin. Since I was calling both heads and tails and getting both right, the coin wasn't bad.

Try it this way. In a room of 30 people, what are the odds that two people share a birthday? It's only 1 in 365, right?

Wrong. The actual odds are above 90%. If the sample space is large enough, even rarities become commonplace. Consequently, in a learge sample space, not finding an aberrant result in one sample is unlikely.

And that's what you're doing here. You're seeing two people in the room having the same birthday, deciding it should be uncommon, and assuming that some conspirator manipulated the class list to ensure it happened.

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