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  #1  
Old 04-06-2010, 07:48 AM
yev yev is offline
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Default GAMBLING

Does anyone have any inputs on how they think gambling works?
It seems that every time that I bet 1g it usually is in the middle cup, while 2g is in the right cup.

Like i said, this is usually the case.
Does anyone know any better way to approach this problem?
  #2  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:11 AM
Deathonabun Deathonabun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yev View Post
Does anyone know any better way to approach this problem?
Just stop trying to find patterns in random chance.

You have a 33% chance to win. Period. Completely random.
  #3  
Old 04-06-2010, 10:09 AM
yev yev is offline
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id rather they have poker or blackjack for gambling, even rock paper scissors would be sufficient...........instead of this "primitive cup" method
  #4  
Old 04-06-2010, 10:24 AM
FluffCake FluffCake is offline
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It's nothing more than a 1:3 chance.

Any sign of pattern is nothing more than a coincidence and should be treated as such.

Obviously you could play 100 rounds or so and take the findings from that to consider working on possible patterns. Even then it probably wouldn't be accurate.
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  #5  
Old 04-06-2010, 11:54 AM
Cashew Cashew is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deathonabun View Post
Just stop trying to find patterns in random chance.

You have a 33% chance to win. Period. Completely random.
Nothing generated by a computer is truly completely random. That's the joy of programming code...It's precisely that. A code. Human-programmed. And hence not random.
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  #6  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:56 PM
cc0430 cc0430 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cashew View Post
Nothing generated by a computer is truly completely random. That's the joy of programming code...It's precisely that. A code. Human-programmed. And hence not random.

this is true, but programmed generators do approach the set odd in the long run though. As long as odds are concerned, it doesn't matter which exact method/program we use to generate numbers long term wise(maybe it matters in online black jack, but not here imo).
  #7  
Old 04-07-2010, 06:38 AM
Cashew Cashew is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cc0430 View Post
this is true, but programmed generators do approach the set odd in the long run though. As long as odds are concerned, it doesn't matter which exact method/program we use to generate numbers long term wise(maybe it matters in online black jack, but not here imo).
Agreed...I was just saying that for all those that truly believe that "random" events on a computer are random, they're not.
Does it matter in this game? No. And I agree that any patter that is seen from the game in any respect is likely a figment of the player's imagination.
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  #8  
Old 04-07-2010, 03:34 PM
CrusaderBin CrusaderBin is offline
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Random or not, you have pretty much a chance of 33% to win. If you have many shrooms or gold you can easily win in MOST scenarios:

example:
Bet 1. outcome: lost
You want to win some and get back what you lost. Bet 2 coins than. outcome:lost

Ok we've lost 3 coins, so we will bet 4: outcome: lost! How unlucky :P
To still make it a win, we bet 8 coins! outcome: lost! NO WAY!
We need to bet 16 now! outcome: win! YAY! we've won the ammount of first bet that way. In this case it is 1 gold piece/shroom.

How this works:
The first bet says HOW MANY we will win.
Every bet after the previous one must be 2x the bet, so If we bet 6 last time and lost - now we bet 12.


Is this a good idea? YES!
The chance of loosing first time is 66%! So propably you will loose! but to loose TWICE in a row, is pretty much 0.44%! To loose 3 times in a row - 0.29, 4 times in a row - only 19%! We can easily afford 6 looses easily, and there is only 8% of that happening! But you need to be prepared and have lots of gold or shrooms, much much more than what you are betting during first bet!

ALSO, yes, 8% chance to loose 6 times in a row is small... but be prepared, the more you play, the higher is the chance that you WILL sooner or later loose that 7th (if not 8th ) time.


I hope this helps at least a little... And yes, I know I am stating the obvious, but perchaps someone will read this and start gambling I've won 70 shrooms and well.. actually lost 30 gold total lol I've won over 200 gold than I lost all, happens ^^
  #9  
Old 04-07-2010, 07:59 PM
Kaidah Kaidah is offline
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An interesting theory, but trying to regain your losses by doubling your bet is a good way to end up loosing even more money. It happens in Las Vegas all the time. It's not like the game is going to take pity on you and let you win after you've lost 10 rounds in a row and are 631g in the hole.

Only bet as much as you can afford to lose.
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  #10  
Old 04-07-2010, 10:21 PM
Jayman Jayman is offline
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wheres the problem, the chance to win is 1:3
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