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  #41  
Old 10-11-2011, 10:04 PM
Phiscira Phiscira is offline
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thanks Charista. I will never compete with shroomers, they are monsters to non-shroomers like me...
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  #42  
Old 10-13-2011, 03:21 AM
ToscanToss ToscanToss is offline
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Aww, snap! I'm a monster... Again...

*goes off skulking*
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  #43  
Old 10-19-2011, 02:13 PM
DominicS DominicS is offline
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Charista View Post
Things can get a little more complex.

Code:
Quest 1: 1 seg, 200000
Quest 2: 3 seg, 610000
Quest 3: 4 seg, 790000
All are good, and above average. Which is best?

Code:
Quest 1: 1 seg, 200000+3x150000 = 650000
Quest 2: 3 seg, 610000+1x150000 = 760000
Quest 3: 4 seg, 790000
Quest 3, by a little bit. Why? Subtracting quest 3 from 2, you get 180000, which is the reward for the last segment of Quest 3, and that is more than the 150000 average. Quest 3 gives you three quests at 610000 total, but one more above average segment.
Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but why is it not accurate to divide down to the xp for a single segment and compare that versus the average xp/segment.

With the above example:
Quest 1: 1 seg = 200 000 > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 2: 3 seg = 610 000 (610 000/3 = 203 333) > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 3: 4 seg = 790 000 (790 000/4 = 197 500) > 150 000 avgxp/seg

Wouldn't that mean that PER segment we are getting more xp doing Quest 2 than Quest 3 AND it is more than our average xp per segment?
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  #44  
Old 10-19-2011, 02:21 PM
Cregan Cregan is offline
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You have to account for the 4th segment you'll do after quest 2. On average this will be for 150 000 xp, dragging the average for ALL four segments down to below the average of quest 3.
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  #45  
Old 10-19-2011, 02:37 PM
DominicS DominicS is offline
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by DominicS View Post
Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but why is it not accurate to divide down to the xp for a single segment and compare that versus the average xp/segment.

With the above example:
Quest 1: 1 seg = 200 000 > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 2: 3 seg = 610 000 (610 000/3 = 203 333) > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 3: 4 seg = 790 000 (790 000/4 = 197 500) > 150 000 avgxp/seg

Wouldn't that mean that PER segment we are getting more xp doing Quest 2 than Quest 3 AND it is more than our average xp per segment?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cregan View Post
You have to account for the 4th segment you'll do after quest 2. On average this will be for 150 000 xp, dragging the average for ALL four segments down to below the average of quest 3.
hmmm... Maybe it's the "bird in the hand" syndrome (no sexual reference intended ), but to me with adding the average to each quest is a 50/50 proposition, an average being what an average is. You are bringing DOWN each quest to your average.

Whereas calculating what you have now, per segment, should be more profitable in the long run as you are always taking a quest that has the max xp per segment that is closest to or over your avgxp/segment. Yes your "average" should change on a often basis then.

Yes it's easier to get my thoughts out in a run on sentence peppered with commas.

All that being said, I am certainly no statistician, which is why equating 9 out of 10 people to 90 out of 100 people never made sense to me. And yes I know the "ratio" is the same, but the practical nature of the relationship never made sense to me.
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  #46  
Old 10-19-2011, 10:02 PM
Charista Charista is offline
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Dominics, Statistics is often called the hardest branch of Math. People that can Integrate three dimensional equations and do Fourier Transforms in their head can find themselves failing Stats, because so much of it is about uncertainty, instead of absolute answers.

Okay, le'ts look at Quest 3 in a different way:

Quest 3: 4 seg = 790 000 (790 000/4 = 197 500) > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 3: 3 seg + 1 Seg = 610000 +180000
Quest 3: Quest 2 + 180000/1Seg

Since 180000 is more than the average 150000 XP/seg, Quest 3 is giving us the high XP from Quest 2 plus an additional 1 segment quest of higher than average reward.

How to use your ave_Xp/seg is the hardest part of this to wrap your head around. It's not easy to understand. I don't knwo where the explanation is breaking down for you, so I can't get past your block.
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  #47  
Old 10-19-2011, 10:19 PM
blackhatnot blackhatnot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DominicS View Post
Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but why is it not accurate to divide down to the xp for a single segment and compare that versus the average xp/segment.

With the above example:
Quest 1: 1 seg = 200 000 > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 2: 3 seg = 610 000 (610 000/3 = 203 333) > 150 000 avgxp/seg
Quest 3: 4 seg = 790 000 (790 000/4 = 197 500) > 150 000 avgxp/seg

Wouldn't that mean that PER segment we are getting more xp doing Quest 2 than Quest 3 AND it is more than our average xp per segment?
Yes, PER segment Quest 2 is more than Quest 3. But what happens when you choose Quest 2 because it offers a marginally higher xp/seg and then your subsequent quests have terrible xp/seg?
This is why it is beneficial to really understand how experience works in this game; if you are keeping track of average xp/seg over lots of levels, you get a better grasp for when numbers don't seem to add up, even when your calculator/spreadsheet tells you it does.
Lets assume that the 150,000 avgxp/seg is after many, many quests. Which makes the average more "accurate." In this situation, it is very likely that after you pick Quest 2, the subsequent quests won't have xp/segments as high as your current options. Thus, picking Quest 3 is the better choice.

This is also why you should re-calculate avgxp/seg after every level, because the magic number that the code for the game uses to decide how much experience you get after every quest changes when you level up.
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DominicS (10-19-2011)
  #48  
Old 10-20-2011, 12:25 AM
DominicS DominicS is offline
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Charista View Post
Dominics, Statistics is often called the hardest branch of Math. People that can Integrate three dimensional equations and do Fourier Transforms in their head can find themselves failing Stats, because so much of it is about uncertainty, instead of absolute answers.
Truer words were never spoken...or typed, I guess would be more accurate in this case.

I think my main "block" seems to come from the reasoning behind carrying each quests segments UP to 4 segments rather than divide DOWN to what the each segment would give you XP wise and then compare that to what your avgxp/seg is.

It seems artificial to ADD your averagexp/seg, when that number has to change after each quest. I understand it doesn't change that much, but it does change. My question here is, wouldn't it be more accurate to divide the xp down to the what it would be for a single segment and then compare it to your averagexp/seg to decide what quest to take. If the average of your quests are going to be 150 000/segment anyway then taking the shorter one with the guaranteed more xp/per segment shouldn't matter, even if the following quests give you lower than your 150 000/segment.

And please, please don't take offense to anything I type! It is so hard to express the intended emotion and intent in this format. I have the utmost respect for you and the TREMENDOUS amount of effort and work you put in putting this wonderful aid together. You didn't have to do it, but you did and I am benefiting from using it, even if my brain is a little dense in understanding the "how". And if I don't remember later THANK YOU, THANK YOU and THANK YOU for taking your precious time to indulge my stupidity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhatnot View Post
Lets assume that the 150,000 avgxp/seg is after many, many quests. Which makes the average more "accurate." In this situation, it is very likely that after you pick Quest 2, the subsequent quests won't have xp/segments as high as your current options. Thus, picking Quest 3 is the better choice.

This is also why you should re-calculate avgxp/seg after every level, because the magic number that the code for the game uses to decide how much experience you get after every quest changes when you level up.
I think I see a glimmer here. The reason for using the average, beside it being based on many quests, is to try and get some consistency in the XP you are earning with each quest? To take the "safer" 4 segment rather than the 2?

My only question with this, and I made it also above, is that if that is the reasoning, then choosing the more XP/segment now has to be ultimately safer, because even if you get crappy quests afterwards, the AVERAGE of 150 000, still has to come into play, so it SHOULD even out.

Ultimately your choice of which quest to take is entirely dependent on what your avgxp/seg is. In the stated case, if your avgxp/seg was 200 000 then we would be taking Quest number 2, correct?

And please also read the plea I made to Charista above about my questions. I, in no way shape or form, intend to insult or offend ANY of you gracious players and contributors, especially when you all have been so very kind in trying to dumb this down so I can understand it.
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  #49  
Old 10-20-2011, 02:10 AM
blackhatnot blackhatnot is offline
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Yes, I think we are in agreement here! Your choice of Quest 2 or Quest 3 will I think boil down to whether you are a cup-half-full or cup-half-empty person, a risk-taker or somebody who likes to play it safe. The logical, mathematical choice should be Quest 3, I think. But sometimes you just gotta take a chance and believe.

Dumb this down so you can understand it? Please, I'm merely relaying the version that I dumbed down so that I myself could understand it in the first place

Last edited by blackhatnot; 10-20-2011 at 02:12 AM.
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  #50  
Old 10-20-2011, 02:14 AM
Charista Charista is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DominicS View Post
My question here is, wouldn't it be more accurate to divide the xp down to the what it would be for a single segment and then compare it to your averagexp/seg to decide what quest to take.
No, it is not. And I understand why you might think that.

One way to look at it is like this. When you know that on average, you get 150000XP/segment, will you always take a 1 segment quest that is 160000XP? It's not much better than the overall average, but it is better than average, right? That's what happens wiht Quest 3 in this example. Yes, that fourth segment is lower XP than the average in Quest 2, but it is better than overall average, and we should always be taking better than that when available.

Quote:
If the average of your quests are going to be 150 000/segment anyway then taking the shorter one with the guaranteed more xp/per segment shouldn't matter, even if the following quests give you lower than your 150 000/segment.
Ah, but the third quest's 4th segment is still better than average, when you subtract Quest 2's experience and assign it only the difference.

Quote:
It seems artificial to ADD your averagexp/seg, when that number has to change after each quest. I understand it doesn't change that much, but it does change.
The change day-to-day is so small that I don't promote calculating it more than once per week for anyone higher than Level 100. You shouldn't be wasting time keeping a running tally. IN an ideal, we're all idito savants that can calculate averages on the fly world, yeah, we could consider it real time. But I think it's totally pedantic to copy quests into a spreadsheet to keep the current average. That's why I promote just recording it at questing time start and end, and then just calculate it over one day. It can still vary by 5% per day, so it's not going to be exact, but at worst, only 1 quest per day might be so tight on the ave_XP/seg number that it would be chosen wrong if it were off by that much.

Quote:
And please, please don't take offense to anything I type!
Not a worry.

Quote:
I think I see a glimmer here. The reason for using the average, beside it being based on many quests, is to try and get some consistency in the XP you are earning with each quest? To take the "safer" 4 segment rather than the 2?
I guess you could call it "safer". It is about "guaranteed" over "unknown", which can be viewed from one perspective as "safer". Quest 3 can be viewed as Quest 2 followed by a 180000XP 1-segment quest, which is known to be better than average. While you could see this as reducing the odds of getting a below average quest, I don't think that's the best perspective.

Quote:
My only question with this, and I made it also above, is that if that is the reasoning, then choosing the more XP/segment now has to be ultimately safer, because even if you get crappy quests afterwards, the AVERAGE of 150 000, still has to come into play, so it SHOULD even out.
Yep.

Quote:
Ultimately your choice of which quest to take is entirely dependent on what your avgxp/seg is. In the stated case, if your avgxp/seg was 200 000 then we would be taking Quest number 2, correct?
Yep.

Last edited by Charista; 10-20-2011 at 02:15 AM.
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